Could Bitcoin really crash to $20,000? Analyst says watch out for 2027

Most analysts covering Bitcoin right now are talking about bottoms and recovery. Alessio Rastani is talking about what comes after the bounce, and the picture he's painting for a Bitcoin crash 2027 is considerably darker than the consensus.

The veteran trader and market analyst believes Bitcoin is set for a short to medium-term rally over the next three to six months. Then, in his view, things get difficult.

A bounce first, then the real drop

Rastani's framework separates what's happening now from what he expects in 2027.

He sees Bitcoin holding key support levels in the near term, specifically the 21 and 34 week exponential moving averages, which currently sit near $59,000 and $47,000 respectively.

Related: Bitcoin has never broken this line in 15 years, it is on it right now

As long as Bitcoin stays above $57,000, he believes a meaningful bounce is on the table.

But he's clear that the bounce is not the story. "I think we're going to see a temporary bounce before we see another decline," he said in a recent interview.

$20,000 by 2027: the Bitcoin crash 2027 math

Using an Elliott Wave count that traces Bitcoin's price history back to 2009, Rastani and analyst Bob Proctor, who he credits with the framework, argue that Bitcoin completed a five-wave bull cycle at the $126,000 all-time high.

Under Elliott Wave Theory, a completed five-wave structure is typically followed by a correction back to the prior Wave 4. For Bitcoin, that level sits around $20,000 to $25,000.

Proctor takes an even more bearish view, targeting $3,500, the Wave 4 from 2018. Rastani stops short of that. "$20,000 to $25,000 by the end of 2027 is my more realistic target," he said.

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The stock market connection

Rastani's Bitcoin thesis is inseparable from his stock market outlook. He expects the S&P 500 to top somewhere between late 2026 and 2027, potentially reaching 8,000 before rolling over into a bear market.

A 50 percent crash from those highs, he said, would drag Bitcoin down alongside it, as it has in every prior cycle.

"I have yet to see any evidence that Bitcoin is not going to follow a crash like the stock market," he said, dismissing the idea that Bitcoin would decouple and act as a safe haven in the next recession.

His long-term view on Bitcoin remains intact, $1 million is possible, he said, but not before 2040 and not before the asset drops to $20,000 first.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Alessio Rastani's short-term outlook for Bitcoin?

He expects a rally over the next three to six months, with Bitcoin holding key support levels. Specifically, he points to the 21 and 34 week exponential moving averages near $59,000 and $47,000, and says a bounce is likely if Bitcoin stays above $57,000.

How does Elliott Wave theory support a Bitcoin crash 2027?

Rastani and Bob Proctor use an Elliott Wave count from 2009. They believe Bitcoin completed a five-wave bull cycle at its $126,000 all-time high. According to the theory, a correction back to the prior Wave 4 often follows, which for Bitcoin is around $20,000 to $25,000.

What role does the stock market play in this forecast?

Rastani sees a strong link between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. He expects the S&P 500 to peak between late 2026 and 2027, possibly at 8,000, before entering a bear market. A 50% drop from that peak, he says, would pull Bitcoin down as well, as in past cycles.

Does Rastani see any long-term upside for Bitcoin?

Yes, he maintains a long-term target of $1 million, but not before 2040 and only after Bitcoin first falls to $20,000. He does not believe Bitcoin will decouple from stocks or act as a safe haven in the next recession.